Friday, November 16, 2007

Bubbly Forecast

If you believe that LTE, UMB and WiMAX will inherit the earth and will have 250 million subscribers by 2012, then he is right. But mobile WiMAX will not get underway until 2009 because there are no Certified devices outside Korea. LTE may start in Japan in 2010 but more likely 2012 in most other countries. Will UMB ever get going? The jury is out. So 250 million subs in-not 5 years-but in 2 or 3 years from service launch. Seems plausible given that GSM added 2 billion users in 10 years, or an average 200 million a year.But UMTS is not growing as fast with only 70 million new subs a year. Even so if LTE and WiMAX between them put on 70 million subs a year, in three years that's 210 million, not far short of the bubbly prediction.